Almost Certain thuthuy760379 מאת

Almost Certain is a personal forecast ledger, not a prediction service. Write a concrete yes-or-no statement, select confidence from 5% to 95%, and choose a date on which to check it. When the outcome is known, resolve the entry as Yes or No. The ledger separates open and resolved forecasts and shows the average squared probability error after at least one outcome; lower is better. You can edit a forecast, reopen a mistakenly resolved outcome, or remove an entry after confirmation. There are no notifications, background checks, accounts, leaderboards, webpage analysis, analytics, or network requests. All entries and outcomes remain on this device in the Firefox profile unless removed or browser extension data is cleared. The interface is entirely in English and works offline.